Lay Betting Systems, Calculators, Odds and How it All Works in Reality.
Are lay betting systems safe? How does it work? When it comes to betting systems, there are literally thousands out there that are available at any given time. These all come with their own lofty ideals about how to pick out the perfect bet week in, week out.
I have seen football based betting systems before now that have been based on things as simple as form, to horse racing systems that look exclusively at handicapped races over 1 mile where the weather is sunny and the horse has only raced once in the last 6 months.
In all honesty, I would be inclined to say that there are a fair few betting systems that I’ve looked at before now which are more akin to superstition than any verifiable pattern. That having been said, there are some exceptions and one of the best examples are lay betting systems.
Because lay betting takes a very different approach to the betting that most people are familiar with, it can increase the profits to some very impressive numbers.
What is Lay Betting?
When it comes to betting, almost everybody is aware of the “back” bet. This is your traditional bet and involves you backing an outcome to occur at agreed odds, exactly the kind of thing you may place down at the bookies on a Saturday afternoon.
With the advent of Betfair and the betting exchange, the world of betting was blown wide open and a huge part of this was as a direct result of lay betting.
For those who aren’t familiar with the concept, lay betting is all about betting against something. In fact, Betfair themselves say that laying a bet is betting something won’t happen.
This means that when you lay a bet through a betting exchange, you are essentially offering somebody a bet that something won’t happen at odds that you wish to offer.
This may sound very similar to the role that a bookmaker plays, something that has been often associated with lay betting (I’ve lost count of the number of betting systems that I’ve looked at before now that refer to lay betting as “being the bookie” or some variant).
Lay bets are generally placed through a betting exchange which works in a similar way to a stock exchange. Bettors from around the world put in the details of a bet that they want to make and others will “lay” these bets. The betting exchange simply matches up opportunities to allow as many people to bet as possible at odds that they find acceptable.
On Betfair, the lay betting side is always the pink side, like this:
When you are lay betting one of the biggest changes lies in the way that you pay out if you lose. Should you choose to back a bet, then all that you lose is your stake. When you lay a bet, you lose your stake at the odds that you agreed.
This means that if you lay a horse at 5.0 (betting exchanges typically use decimal odds) then you will pay out 5 times the agreed stake (which you ultimately set). This means that if you lose, you tend to lose rather big however this isn’t the be all and end all.
Lay Betting Calculator
The beauty of using Betfair, is that you don’t specifically need a lay betting calculator, because all the information is right on their website.
The only real time you may need an alternative calculator is when running a system where you are retrieving your losses, also know as loss recovery systems. This way a specific calculator can be used so that you know exactly how much to lay to recoup previous losses, as well as make a healthy profit at the same time.
Otherwise I would advise you to just use Betfair’s own tools, which are in real time, and are faultless.
What Kind of Lay Betting Systems Are Available?
In the main, when it comes to lay betting systems there are two different types of product that you will encounter. The first of these are tipster services. These will tell you what to bet on and when to bet on it. Tipster services are particularly well suited to those who perhaps struggle to find time or want an easy way of betting.
The other product type is manual (sometimes referred to as mechanical) systems. These show you a method of identifying bets for yourself, usually based around a statistic or a certain piece of information. The main advantage of betting systems over tipster services are that you actively develop knowledge.
This means that you get to take the skills forward with you and usually, you will improve your knowledge of a sport.
I have reviewed a few lay betting systems, and one of the most talked about was one that I tested myself and produced fantastic results, and there was a lot of discussion about it. So much so, that I stopped taking comments on that particular thread as I was being inundated daily with questions. Here you can find this particular lay betting system.
Horse and Football Lay Betting Systems
You can pretty much lay anything to lose on Betfair, and this is not just about horse racing, but football also has many advantages when placing lay bets.
As an example, if you look at the image above you will see how many different ways a football match can be layed.
You can bet on the teams losing, drawing, the finishing result, amont of corners, next goal score, and much more Put simply if there is enough money in the markets on the back betting side, then you can lay anything to lose, at any score, and at any result possibility.
What are the Pros and Cons of Lay Betting Systems?
There are some very strong pros and cons when it comes to lay betting and you really have to consider these when you are trying to decide if lay betting is for you.
The biggest pro when it comes to lay betting systems is undoubtedly that there is generally less risk, particularly if you have a decent system. For example, consider a horse race in which there are 8 runners. When you lay a horse, what you are betting on is that one of seven horses will finish ahead of it.
This generally leads to much higher strike rates with a lot of decent lay betting systems getting strike rates above 80%. This is compared to a decent backing system which will be around 35%.
Another advantage of lay betting systems lies in how the staking works. If you place a bet that is a back bet, you have to trawl through bookies to see who is offering the best odds.
This means that you are spending time and more importantly, your profits can be massively varied depending on when in the day you place your bets. With lay betting, your stake is your profit (minus commission) which means that for every £10 you stake, you will get £9.50 through Betfair. This allows for a much more consistent approach to betting.
Odds and Liability on Lay Betting
Using Betfair, you have to watch for the liability with lay betting.
With direct betting, for example if you bet £10 at exchange odds of 2.0 your profit will be x 1 (even money) so you are doubling your money, and the most you can actually lose is your stake money, very similar to going to a bookmaker on the high street and placing a normal bet. If you lose, you lose your 310 and that is the end of it, like this:
A you can see from the image above, no matter what the potential profits could be, your liability is only your stake, in this case £20. So even though on the above bets you could potentially win way over £500+, should you lose you can only lose £20.
Lay betting is different, and the main reason it is different is because it is deemed to be far easier to predict that something will lose, than predicting it will win.
For example, if Manchester United were to play a 4th division side, then it goes without saying that the chance of Manchester United losing are very small, and therefore should you place a lay bet on them losing, then your liability will be higher than if you were betting on them to win.
Here is an example:
On the image above, you can see that I have placed a lay bet at odds of 2.22, with a backer’s stake of just £10. The backer’s stake is what you are asking the market to match for you, therefore somebody who is placing a direct bet (against your bet, and result) will have to take this bet on the exchanges, and match what you are asking for.
But, unlike direct betting (first image) your liability should the event go against you is actually higher than your stake, in this case, the liability being £12.20. Meaning should the even not go your way, you will lose more than the backers stake.
Also, because your are laying events to lose, the odds very much decide how much you will lose, and not the stake. This is very important, because with lay betting you can lose a lot of money should you lay an outsider to lose, and it wins, and this happens way more than you think. It is highly possible that the exchanges have been manipulated so that the odds are much higher than they should be.
The amount of times I have seen a 50/1 shot win a race out of nowhere is not even funny, and chances are when it happens you will have layed it (otherwise how else would you know it happens. I have certainly done it in the past, and believe me, it hurts – a lot 🙂
You may think “ah, a 50/1, it has no chance of winning, so I will lay it and make easy money when it loses”, but you would be very surprised just how often such thinking can turn around and bit you if you do not trade/bet to a system you have confidence in.
You can see an example of this on the next image:
As you can see on the image above, if you were to play a lay trade at odds of 55, your liability would be huge, in this case, £540. This means that if the horse/team/event wins, you would be well out of pocket. The chances of a horse winning at odds of 55 are slim to almost none, but it could happen, so although you can be making regular profits by laying events, should one not go your way, it can wipe your bank out!
For all of the positives there are definitely some downsides to a lay betting system. As it takes place exclusively on a betting exchange, there is always a possibility your bets won’t be matched. There is also the counter point to consistent profits which states that you simply don’t make as much per bet.
This is often mentioned in the same breath as the fact that building a bank with lay betting is a somewhat laborious process.
As I have already touched upon in exploring what a lay betting system involves, there is also the fact that you can stand to lose more on a per bet basis. This can be devastating when it is combined with a badly managed service which cannot maintain the high strike rate.
Conclusion On Exchange Lay Betting
Lay betting is one of the more successful methods of betting that I have come across and it is something that is seriously worth your consideration if you want to take your betting to the next level. In terms of finding a decent lay betting system, a pretty good place to start looking is somewhere like the Racing Index (a website which proofs both back and lay betting services.
Where it stands out it is that it separates the two so you can find just laying systems). There are also a few notable examples such as Little Acorns which consistently do well.
When you are looking for a lay betting system it is important that you look for something that is consistent. As I have mentioned before now, you won’t be winning massive amounts so it is important that you win often.
If you are able to get a decent lay betting service however, it can become the cornerstone of your betting portfolio with consistent wins allowing you to take more flamboyant risks with your other bets.
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