Lay Bet Kings Review. Lay Betting Tipsters on Betfair – Testing Started

lay bettingI have been asked if I would test a lay betting tipster service by a vendor that this website has reviewed for before. Now this is not a system, but an actual tipster service: Lay Bet Kings.

I have been asked before to test such tipsters, and usually discount them, but this one does seem to stand out based on the results sent in to me, and based on around 2 weeks testing myself laying the bets on Betfair.

But with lay betting, it is ALL in the percentages, and 2 weeks worth of profits is not always enough to validate a tipster, not in this business.

Lay betting is fairly simple to understand, but on this review I will be explaining the basics of how it works, some background information on the tipster, as well as the full results for at least 2 weeks moving forward (providing I have the time, of course).

What this lay betting review will contain:

  • Background to lay betting.
  • How lay betting works.
  • The tipster selections (pre race)
  • The tipster results.

The Product Review

Product Name: Lay Bet Kings.

Offered By: laybetkings101.

Price: £200 Per Month by Western Union Only.

Where to Buy: Not given (see warning in review).

What You Get : 20 lay bet tips per month.

If you have used Betfair for lay betting before then you will probably know that usually the trades go your way, but it is when the trades don’t go your way that you can make losses, so the percentages of losing horses needs to be extremely high, and the odds not too hight o make this work.

I have been sent some results from the tipster concerned, and they are relatively impressive (so far!), but as with all such things, this needs testing in a real life situation, and so that you the readers can see the selections/tips before the races start, and the potential profits (or losses) being made over a decent enough timescale.

That is my aim on the Lay Bet Kings review.

All the tips will be placed BEFORE the races start, and we can then evaluate the success of this service, as we have done with other testing on this website.

What is Betfair Lay Betting?

Lay betting on Betfair is the process of betting against an outcome.

For example, if you thought Liverpool were going to lose against Arsenal, then you can make a bet, or trade on this outcome happening, and if Liverpool then do lose the match, you will have made a profit.

There are differences with lay betting, compared to conventional back betting, and the main difference is that you are liable for more losses depending on the odds you have chosen for your lay bet.

The same goes for horse racing, which this test will be all about.

If the horse the tipster gives you loses the race, and you have layed it at Betfair, then you win your trade.

For example, on this lay betting test, the first selection ( Bay Station) I have placed a £2 trade on, and you can see from the image below, that should the horse lose, I will win £2.

Betfair lay betting example 1

Although, should the horse win the race, I will lose £14.80, as I actually placed the lay bet at 8.4.

You can see the result below:

lay betting example 2

As you can see from the image above, Ebitda won the race (odds of 1.01), and the horse I layed, which was the selection from the tipster, lost the race.

The following is the Betfair profit from this first selection:

lay bet profits on Betfair

Let the lay betting testing begin. As I said, I will be placing ALL the tips before the races start so that you can see this testing live, and the results yourself. I have not deducted Betfair commissions for ease of explanation, and reporting, but on average this will be around 5%.

I will be testing this for around 2 weeks, using £2 stakes (After the first profit of this review, I have now decided to increase the stakes from £2 to £20 moving forward to give this a real test).

I am told all selections will below 9.0 as much as possible, and that selections are created using statistics, and algorithms.

The Betfair Laying Tips are as follows:

Starting with Just £20 per trade, and maybe increasing later.

Selections will be placed here before the races start, so you can check:

Tuesday 12th September 2017 –

Catterick 2.15 Bay Station 9.0 on Betfair – Won £20 –  P&L Now: + £20

Wednesday 13th September 2017 –

Doncaster 4:20 Lahore 5.0 on Betfair –  Lost £76– P&L Now: -£56.00

Carlistle 4:40 Tagur 9.0 on Betfair – Lost £160 – P&L Now: -£216.00

Well Folks, I guess this is why we test these things out, and why we usually discard them when we get offered.

That’s the review over before it has even started really? Just a bad start? We’ll see 🙂

Let’s continue with the selections and see if it turns around:

Thursday 14th September 2017 –

Epsom 3:10 Hollywood Road 5.2 on Betfair – Won £20 – P&L Now: -£196.00

Friday 15th September 2017 –

Listowel 3:50 Ringside Support 6.4 on Betfair – Won £20 – P&L Now: -£176.00

Saturday 16th September 2017 –

Chester 3:15 Kenstone 9.2 on Betfair – Won £20 – P&L Now: -£156.00

Sunday 17th September 2017 –

Ffos Las 5:00 Eolian 4.8 on Betfair – Won £20 – P&L Now: -£136.00 (Post)

Monday 18th September 2017 –

Galway 2:25 Gagas Horse 9.0 on Betfair – Won £20 – P&L Now: -£116.00

Tuesday 19th September 2017 –

Yarmouth 2:35 Rayna’s World 12.0 on Betfair – Not betting that, odds too high!  (but won at around 14.0 BSP)

Chepstow 4:20 Time To Blossom 7.4 on Betfair

I am concluding the review there, the tips are simply not creating the results. This maybe a blip, but at the odds the tips are coming in at, and sent to us, I don’t think so.

The tip at Yarmouth 2:35 was advised at odds of 12.0 as a lay bet and the horse won the race fairly easily. So that would have lost another £220, meaning the overall loss would have been £336 in 9 selections/tips given to £20 stakes, and would have then needed 16.8 more winning lay bets just to break even.

No thank you – Far too risky!

 

 

What are The Benefits to Lay Betting?

The main benefits to lay betting is that it is far easier to pick a losing horse than a winning one.

This is obviously really, because if you are looking at a typical racing card with day 8 runners, then only one of those horses is going to win, so if you then look at the form of all the horses, you can mostly predict what is going to happen in a race, and the chances of your chosen horse winning, or losing the race.

It is like in a football match, the chances of Chelsea losing to Burton Albion is slim to none, is a competitive match, so you have a high chance of winning your lay bet if you bet on Burton Albion to lose.

Thus you would be reasonably confident that you would win your lay bet, and you probably will unless something highly unusual happens in the game.

The same goes for lay betting on the horses.

For example, if you look at today’s race at Leicester, the 14:55 below, you will see that the favourite is Beautiful Memory at 2.66 in back odds, and the lay odds are currently 2.68.

Then you have Savaanah at odds of 10 on the back bet side, and 11.5 on the lay bet side, so obviously the betting market thinks that Savaanah has a much less chance of winning the race, and thus you may this this is ripe for a lay bet:

lay betting favourite

What are the Negatives to Lay Betting?

The negatives are that unlike with direct betting where you place say £2 on a horse to win, then no matter what the odds are, if the horse loses you will only lose £2.

With lay betting on Betfair, if you say lay a horse to lose at odds of 12.5, then if the horse wins the race (the opposite to what you have bet on it to do), then you are risking a lot more, because you are then risking the LIABILITY.

  • With back betting you risk the stake.
  • With lay betting you risk the liability.

The above is well worth remembering.

To give you an example, using the same race at Leicester, the odds of Savaanah have now drifted out, and the lay bet option odds are now at 12.5, so as the image below shows, if you place a lay bet on that horse at those odds, the liability (if it won) is now £25, compared to winnings of £2 if it lost:

losses on lay betting

As you can see from above, you are risking far more money the higher you go up on the odds.

If for example you were to place a lay bet at evens, then you would be risking the same amount as you would be winning if the result went your way, so the success of lay betting is the odds in the main.

I will demonstrate this now.

I will go to Betfair on the same Leicester race and ask for odds of 2.0 on the lay bet side for Savaanah, and see what happens:

asking for pricing

As you can see from the image above, by asking for lower odds, my liability should the race not go in my direction (the horse winning) I would be liable for just £2, which is the amount I would lose if the horse won.

To further demonstrate this, I will show you the actual card which Betfair conveniently shows you the profit and loss depending on which way the result goes:

low odds laying on betfair

As demonstrated above, now the I have asked for much lower odds, the winnings, compared to the potential losses are now equal, because I have asked for even prices (2.0).

Is Lay Betting Successful?

It is a good question, and the fact is, that if it were easy to predict everybody would be at it wouldn’t they? 🙂

There are people, and tipsters who obviously make profits using lay bets, but I feel the key to the success is as follows:

  • Getting real value on pricing
  • Doing real background checks on the horses potential
  • A proven history on success
  • A high enough success rate  – which is essential

The last point, the success rate needs to be extremely high, definitely in the 90’s and with low enough odds to ensure that long term, even with a few losses that do not go your way, that overall a decent profit is made.

The Lay Betting Tipster Being Tested?

As I mentioned earlier, I have been approached by a vendor that we have reviewed before, and asked if we would publish the live results, and tips of this lay betting service.

I am told that there has never been a losing month, and that in 95% of the previous results, that a 100% record has been achieved on a monthly basis regarding the laying tips.

I will be publishing the lay betting tips for 2 weeks on this website before the races commence, and then updating with the results.

I have no doubt that profits can be made using lay betting, but this is the first time that I have tested a live trial of a Betfair lay betting service on this website, and it should be interesting as to what the results bring.

The odds need to be decent enough to avoid over-exposure to the markets, and the success rate needs to be high enough to produce a long term profit.

I have actually been testing this for a few weeks now, as I was asked a while ago to check this out before making this blog review, and the results were excellent, hence why I am going live with the results to give readers the chance to follow the tips, and results.

Conclusion on the Lay Betting Tipster

At the end of the 2 week trial, I will public my full findings and see if this really does have potential.

You can bookmark this page if you wish to follow the trial.

Lay Betting Tipster Update 13th Sept 2017

I know we should not judge too early, and I am usually the first to say to readers that trading, and betting is long term, but considering when I was approached, I was told that 95% of the months over the last 12 months had a 95% successful lay betting record, I expect a much better start than 2 losses out of the first 3 races.

We tested the same on the Greats Bets review, and the more recent Racing Wins review (both of which can be read in the reviews section), and both those services had fantastic previous records, and then when we tested them the results were less than favourable.

The same thing also happened more recently with the DataKings Product from Agora Lyfestyles/Betting Rant, in that their reviewer checked all the stats for a particular bot service, and when they launched it to their full membership base, and their email list the results just did not replicate previous results that the author achieved.

The difference with a lay betting tipster service, is that the winning percentage really does have to be so high, or you are forever chasing the proverbial £ note trying to recoup your losses.

On this test, after 2 races, 2 out of 3 losses has already placed a massive spanner in the works, so much so that another couple of losses in the next few races could lead to quite considerable losses overall, unlike say with a direct betting system where you only lose the stake, and a few losses is sustainable.

After only 3 races we are already £216 down to £20 stakes, so to recoup those losses we would need 10.8 winning races on the bounce to break even, which shows you how delicate lay betting can be.

It is of course possible that this is down to reviewer’s curse, in that when a service has been flying high for even 12 months, when a third party starts to review the service, it gets off to a bad start. Maybe the tipster gets nervous due to their outfit being reviewed, live. The problem is, if such a service had launched yesterday, there would be a lot of potential agry folks already in deficit-city.

…….Albeit that still does not (yet) mean something does not work, just possibly a bad start, but still, it is difficult for the grey matter to comprehend when you have such a loss in your Betfair account.

lay betting has to be ultra focused on the winning percentages to stand even the slightest of chances.

I will continue to put up the selections just to see what happens, as I did say I would give it 2 weeks, and the early results could have been a blip, or as I say reviewer’s curse.

Lay Betting Tipster Update 18th Sept 2017

The results over the last week have definitely got better, in fact, I actually missed one of the tips that was issued.  It was sent but for some reason I didn’t receive it, which was also proven to me, and it was a winner for the tips.

Let’s see how the results go for the next 2 weeks, or maybe longer. I currently stand by my initial stance on lay betting tipsters, in that the results have to be very, very high to produce a consistent profit.

One other point to make, is that the second loss on the results section was irregular, as usually there is only one tip per day, not 2, and if that had been maintained we would be in profit by now.

The tipster concerned sends out one tip per day, so that second tip that resulting in the second loss should not have been given, but it was given so I have included it in the vein of transparency.

I also suspect the tipster was trying to make up for the first loss that day due to this review, so these lay betting results are still interesting to me, especially considering the back dated results that I have checked, and which can be seen below:

  • August 2017 – 19/20 lay bets won = 95% success rate.
  • July 2017 – 19/20 lay bets won = 95% success rate.
  • June 2017 – 20/20 lay bets won = 100% success rate.
  • May 2017 – 20/20 lay bets won = 100% success rate.

78 lay wins out of 80 lay bets given cannot be ignored in this business. Obviously the above results would have produced excellent profits had you been trading them – although as you will see below, they are manipulating their results, which we found out at a later stage…

Let’s see how the rest of the results pan out, because I don’t have a great deal of interest in previous tipping results, because as we all know the past does not equal the future, and that is even more relevant when dealing with tipsters, lay betting or otherwise.

Lay Betting Tipster Conclusion 19th Sept 2017

I am concluding this review early. In fact it is one of the quickest reviews we have done.

The tips that were provided are just not of good enough quality, and if all the tips had been traded, then a loss of £336 would have been made in just 9 selections/tips, which is only 6 wins out of 9 selections, and 3 losses, which is a very poor strike rate.

Generally, that strike rate would not seem too bad in a backing environment, but when you are being asked to LAY horses at odds of 12.0+, then this becomes extremely risky, and as I mentioned early on in the review, the strike rate needs to be in the high 90’s to make a success of lay betting, and these tips are nowhere near that.

Final Lay Bet Kings Results to £20 Stakes

(Finished early due to Poor Results/Odds):

Lay Bet Kings ResultsCould it have been just a blip? Possibly, but a blip that could have wiped out a betting bank, and when you consider the previous results I mentioned on the last update, then those results compared to the live testing results seem very suspect indeed, and this is the whole reason why it is absolutely imperative to TEST under live conditions.

WARNING: Lay Bet Kings Changing Their Results:

I have now been alerted, that due to the losses this particular Lay Bet Kings Blogspot tipster had in September, that they have removed all the losses from their website, and are now claiming they have had a ‘100% success rate’ with a ‘new algorithm’, which is very underhanded, and misleading the public regarding their service.

The Lay Bet Kings Tipster now has the following results for their September selections:

20/20 =  100% success rate

Which is strange considering there were at least 3 losses given to us during the testing for this review, and one more loss earlier on for the September results on their page. Now those losses seem to have mysteriously ‘vanished’.

I have no doubts that lay betting can, and does work, but not with this tipster, especially when one of their key messages on their home page is:

“Just Check On Our Results And Subscribe Through Western Union

Get In Now For Only 200 Pounds Per Month”

Plus the following statement on their Twitter account just 12 hours ago:

“#100% RECORD IN TACK 20/20 Lay Bets Won For September Subscribe Now For October”

Well, there were at least 3 losses given to us during the trial, and at least another loss further up the September month results.

This highlights how some tipsters are manipulating their results/figures in an attempt at fooling new, and potential members into thinking they are successful – especially considering that Lay Bet Kings are charging their members a massive £200 per month.

 – It is actually fraud.

Never judge on previous results alone.

 

 

 

Related Content:

 

 

Lay Betting Systems, Calculators, Odds and How it All Works in Reality.

 

Horse Racing Systems, Free, Paid For, and Which One To Choose

 

Each Way Betting Systems, and How It Works, Rules and Odds

 

 

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2 Comments

  • Paul Baines says:

    Nice review Daniel! I nearly fell for their spiel 2 years ago around 2015 when I was looking for lay bettors advice. Their pricing was only £25 a month then so to see it now at £200 a month by western union payments only is laughable really.

  • Thanks says:

    Thanks,
    I was going to try the trial, but this is all I need to know, great to see an unbiased review!
    I used to follow BetAdvisor tipsters with no luck many years ago, so will stick to my own methods still.

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