Ben’s Place Only Betting System, Turning £1,000 into £2,258.50 in 4 days
Hi Everyone, I thought I would migrate the selections, and results from my place only testing on a new system I started testing. For all those who would have read the original thread, you will know that I was originally (and still am) testing a place system for a family friend of mine.
It was during the testing of Tom’s (The family friend) system that I had an idea, and started testing my own system based on a method I used to use a few years back.
I placed all the selections live BEFORE the races began, so that readers could see that the selections were available before racing commenced for the day, and then I updated the results after each race, to show the profit or loss.
- 1 What is Ben’s Place Only System?
- 2 The Benefits of Place Betting
- 3 So here are the advantages of place betting:
- 4 Ben’s Place Only System – The Results:
- 5 The test was starting with a £1,000 betting bank.
- 6 UPDATE on Staking Plans and Profits:
- 7 Alternative Staking Plans:
- 8 Compounding Using Place Only Markets
- 9 Incoming search terms:
What is Ben’s Place Only System?
I have always been interested in gambling, and I have also tested very many systems over the years. In fact I have oodles of file that I have printed off from previous testing which is still sat in my office gathering dust.
Many systems have good basic ideas, and methodology behind the ideas, but I think before Betfair came along there wasn’t really a possibility of long term profits without getting your bookmaker accounts banned.
As we know Betfair does not care whether you win, or lose, as it is an exchange where you are betting, or trading against other Betfair customers, with Betfair taking a commission no matter who comes out the winner.
It was whilst testing Tom’s place selections, which can be found here, that I thought I would test something of my own.
The Benefits of Place Betting
Now place betting is unique I believe, in the fact that unlike each way betting, you are getting odds that are the same whether your horse comes first, second, or third. With each way betting the odds for second, third, and forth are usually a quarter of the odds that you would get with place betting, and this is a major advantage I believe.
Yes, the odds are reduced with place betting, compared with a direct win. The odds on a horse may be 4.2 for a win, and be 2.2 for a place, but the difference between you are spreading your risk of that 2.2 odds between three (3) places, which means that no matter which position the horse comes in, you still get the same odds, and this affords quite a few options when creating some kind of system.
Now you might think that wit the odds of place betting being reduced that most of the selections would be odds on. That is not true. In fact, over the 33 initial races I traded, the combined odds were 75.53, divided by the 33 races means the average odds on the selections were 2.28, which means that for every £100 bet, you would be making a profit in the region of £128, which is far from odds on.
Also, if you were betting on odds on favourites (which my system does not, as I do not pick favourites as a filter), then you would quickly have your betting bank wiped out with even the smallest of losing runs, but with place betting, as long as you can get decent odds, a losing run can be maintained.
So here are the advantages of place betting:
- Decent odds – The odds are surprisingly generous considering you essentially are being given 2/3/4 chances of winning, depending on how many horses are in the race, and you can use filters on this if you like, to avoid smaller fields, or longer fields.
- Flexibility in finishing places – You will make the same amount of profit no matter where the horse finishes, 1st, 2nd or 3rd, which takes a lot of pressure off you, which I feel is very important when gambling/trading.
- Fixed odds amongst all positions – You know the odds before palcing the bets, and you will also know the profit return no matter what position the horse finishes, again, this is important for when creating a system around results.
- No real calculations required compared to each way betting – Compated to each way betting, where if creating a system you would have to calculate 1/4 of the odds if say the horse finished in second/third, etc. with place betting it is simple, because win or place, the price and profit potential is exactly the same.
- Excellent for systems – Due to the odds being the same no matter where you finish, place betting makes system creating simple in my opinion, because you know exactly where you are at any time, and once you have placed the bets, and they are matched on the exchanges, then you are done.
Ben’s Place Only System – The Results:
OK, so I started placing the selections onto the other thread (The other testing thread where I was testing Tom’s selections), on Wednesday the 15th June 2016.
The test was starting with a £1,000 betting bank.
I place the horses, the race course, the time the race started, the odds I got matched at, as well as the finishing positions. Then, after the race, I placed the results, and profits made (or losses).
If you check the posts below, you will see the daily posts I made, and the results.
So as you can see, over a period of 4 days I made a profit of £1258.50, which is a 125.8% profit on the original £1,000 starting bank.
Now you could say, yeah, anybody could do that over such a small time frame. But really, there were 33 races! Most tipsters will give you one tip a day over 30 days, equalling 30 tips, and would they have made you such a profit? I think not. I have tried tipsters in the past and they are usually utter garbage!
I suppose the main reason I have started this thread about it, was to highlight the possibilities with systems, and that they can be profitable.
I will also be updating the stats to show the potential profit with various staking plans, level stakes and progressive to realise the true potential.
As mentioned, I have already been getting a lot of emails about this, from people wanting to know the selection process, but before I even think about taking it any further, I will be spending more time seeing what can be ‘tightened’ up, because systems come and go all the time, and in my mind, the main two factors that make any system work long term, is the prices you can get (the odds) and the potential losing runs, and how they can be managed.
If after doing my stats it turns out that level staking is viable (and I know it is with the results in the comments), then I may look to take it further, but as with anything far more testing is required.
It has been enjoyable though, and I know a lot of readers have enjoyed watching over the first 4 days, my inbox has been inundated 😛
UPDATE on Staking Plans and Profits:
I have just finished doing the calculations on staking plans based on the results:
Increase the previous lossed stake by 50% increments = £1258.50 Profit = 125.8% increase on bank
This means after you lose a race, you add 50% to the next stake, so if £100 was lost on the first race, the next stake would be £150, or if you lost £10, then the next stake would be £15, etc. etc.
Level stakes = win or lose, no increase = £703.00 Profit – 70% increase on bank
This means that no matter if you win, or lose, the next stake is the same. For example, if trading with £100, or £10 level stakes, then win, or lose, the next stake would be the same, £100, or £10. This is level staking.
There are alternatives of course, using a compounding staking plan. So if you started with say a £1,000 betting bank, you could be conservative and use 5%, or 10% of your bank as your stake, and as you are winning, the 5%, or 10% would stay the same but the amounts trading with would be higher, and with a good win ratio, this would work very well. I might do the calculations for it later.
Alternative Staking Plans:
Using 10% of a betting bank and compounding = £673.73 Profit – 67.75% increase on bank
Looking at all the stats, I think the preferred staking plans I would personally use are the following:
Using 5% of a bank, and adding 50% increments after a loss = £629.25 Profit – 62.9% increase on bank
£1,000 betting bank, and using 5% solid stakes +50% after a loss, not a percentage of the bank, so simply:
£50, and if a loss a occurs, then the next stake is £75, then £100, etc. But the starting point being only 5% of a bank.
By using a 5% of a betting bank and increasing by 50% increments, so starting with £50, then after a loss £75, then £100, then £125, etc. would allow a losing run of 7, which when considering you have the first 3 places (sometimes 2) simply would never happen in my opinion.
Using 2.5% (£25 of a £1K bank) of a bank, and adding 50% increments after a loss = £435.50 Profit – 43.5% increase on bank
The bottom line is though, and which is considered (by some, not me) the Holy Grail of gambling = It works to level stakes.
As with ALL gambling, and trading methods, either place betting or otherwise, it is the increase on bank that matters, so that no matter what starting bank somebody can afford, they can easily calculate the increase of any bank in terms of potential profit.
So if you only had £100 to spare, then to level stakes, that would mean a profit of £70.30 after the 4 days.
Compounding Using Place Only Markets
Personally, and having just spent the last hour running various possibilities through the calculator, I would think that compounding would be highly efficient after the day’s trading has been completed.
So after my first day, when I made £132, I would have added that to my initial £1,000 starting bank, meaning I would then have had a £1232 bank on day two.
Then after day 2, when I made another £90 for the day, I would start day 3 with £1322,00, and on day three when I made another £442.50. I would start day 4 with a bank of £1764.50, and after day 4, when I made another £593.50 I would be starting day 5 with a £2258.50 betting bank.
Then if I had compounded after each day, and worked out the percentages, and could then start the initial trades at £200, instead of the first day’s £100, etc. etc.
All interesting, eh, and the intention of this post is not to sell anything, just for entertainment purposes only 🙂
Always remember though, that gambling and trading is always longer term, and the profits, or return on any investment should be taken over a much longer timescale. I have learned that through a lot of experience, time and dedication when trying to devise systems that have some merit.
It should be seen as an investment, and some months may not return a profit, but if a system can be devised that makes a low risk profit over a year, and the profits are reasonable for the time invested, then that, to me is a system that is worth while.
Gamblers have been trying to find such a system since bookmaking began…
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